OTTAWA — This article was featured in the Nightly Briefing newsletter, CTV News’ evening reading recommendation. You can sign up here to receive it each weekday night. The latest federal modelling on the COVID-19 pandemic shows that in the short-term, Canada’s epidemic is set to keep growing, predicting up to 155,795 total cases and 9,300 deaths by Oct. 2, unless Canadians re-adopt the same degree of health precautions they took in the early months of the pandemic. Federal health officials released updated national COVID-19 modelling on Tuesday, as there continues to be a surge in new cases of the virus across several provinces, prompting renewed anxieties about Canada’s ability to stave off a full-blown second wave. There are currently nearly 11,000 active COVID-19 cases in Canada, while another 126,230 patients have recovered. To date, more than 9,200 Canadians have died from the novel coronavirus.
“Canada is at a crossroads and individual action to reduce contact rates will decide our path,” said the federal presentation document provided to reporters.
The new modelling shows how the course of the pandemic Canada charts in the weeks ahead will vary greatly depending on the precautions in place, projecting big spikes this fall if Canadians don’t redouble efforts to limit the number of close contacts they have, maintain physical distance from people not in their immediate social bubbles, wear masks when distancing can’t be maintained, and stay home if experiencing any COVID-19 symptoms.
“All of us have the future in our hands in terms of the decisions we’re making today,” said Health Minister Patty Hajdu at Tuesday’s briefing. “Those decisions that we make today, to say ‘no’, to connect in different ways, to keep our gathering sizes small, to ensure that we’re not socializing more than absolutely necessary, are going to actually help drive the cases down. It’s a sacrifice that we all have to make.” Cases reported now reflect increasing transmission one to two weeks ago, and the projections indicate that if Canada maintains its current rate of contacts, the epidemic will come back “faster and stronger,” warned Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada’s chief public health officer.
It’s time to re-adopt the personal protection and separation measures that were taken in March and April to have a change at reversing the epidemic growth, she said.
Tam said that with minimal controls—which is not Canada’s current reality— the epidemic in Canada is capable of surging into a “very sharp and intense peak” because most Canadians don’t have immunity to the virus.
“This surge could overwhelm our health system capacity and significantly impact social and economic systems as well,” she said.
Source: ctvnews.ca
Sunday, May 3, 2026
