Fewer than 13 million people live in the former Soviet republics of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Yet the war that has broken out between the two countries risks turning into a global conflagration. Since fighting erupted a week ago, hundreds of people have been killed, including civilians. Attitudes are hardening on either side, with both countries invoking full or partial martial law while mobilizing their populations for an almost existential conflict. As battles rage, the clashes could yet draw in regional powers Turkey, Russia and others deeper into the fray.
At the heart of the crisis is the long-disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which sits inside Azerbaijan’s borders but has a predominantly ethnic Armenian population and is controlled by factions with close ties to Armenia’s capital Yerevan, as well as a set of other territories that abut the region now emptied of their non-Armenian communities. Periodic skirmishes have broken out over the contested terrain, most recently in July. But the current fighting marks the worst round of violence since the early 1990s, when as many as 30,000 people were killed and thousands more displaced until a 1994 cease fire brought a fragile peace to the Caucasus. Azerbaijani and Armenian officials blame each other for provoking tensions and targeting civilians. On Sunday, authorities in Azerbaijan reported Armenian missile strikes hit densely-populated areas in Ganja, the country’s second-largest city, killing at least one civilian and injuring four others. Arayik Harutyunyan, an Armenian leader in Nagorno-Karabakh, claimed his forces had fired rockets to “neutralize military targets” in the city, a characterization rejected by Azerbaijani officials. Armenian officials said that Stepanakert, the main city in Nagorno-Karabakh, was under heavy bombardment from Azerbaijani forces. Journalists reported that many civilians were hiding in bomb shelters as the city weathered a sustained attack. Elin Suleymanov, Azerbaijan’s ambassador in Washington, told Today’s WorldView that his country’s forces were not targeting civilians and accused the Armenian side of indiscriminately bombing parts of his country. ……..
For Moscow, the situation is even more delicate. It maintains deep ties with — and has sold weaponry to — both countries, but remains closer to Armenia. If the conflict spirals and spreads to flash points far from Nagorno-Karabakh, analysts suggest it raises the possibility of Russia and Turkey pitted in yet another proxy war after backing opposing sides in Syria and Libya. The Russian public, though, is increasingly disapproving of the Kremlin’s foreign adventures and that may limit Russia’s scope for action.
“We use our privileges to be a welcomed party by both Armenia and Azerbaijan,” said Sergey Markedonov, senior researcher at the government-run Moscow State Institute of International Relations, to the Wall Street Journal. “Turkey concentrates only on one side and it creates obstacles for Russia, because it pushes Azerbaijan to make a choice.”The indifference of the West, particularly the United States, to ongoing strife and disagreements may be part of the problem. “Lack of international attention has sent a message to the parties that the conflict matters little outside the region,” noted the International Crisis Group. “In Baku, especially, this has exacerbated frustration with diplomacy.”
Source: aljazeera.com
Tuesday, May 5, 2026
