By: David Coletto, May 8, 2025
For much of 2023 and 2024, Canadians were deeply entrenched in a scarcity mindset—a psychological state characterized by anxiety about the accessibility and affordability of basic necessities. This mindset had profound political implications, creating widespread discontent. Life felt perpetually uncertain, with essential items and services harder to obtain, increasingly expensive, and prone to sudden loss. Such sentiments inevitably translated into fierce anti-incumbent sentiment, a trend vividly captured by the Financial Times’ global analysis showing 2024 as one of the worst years for incumbent governments globally in over 100 years. Whether it was Biden’s Democratic Party in the US or Macron’s coalition in France, not a single ruling parties anywhere saw its popular support increase from the previous time it faced voters.
Canada was no exception. Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government, already battered by growing dissatisfaction over affordability and economic insecurity, faced catastrophic polling numbers by late 2024. When Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland resigned in December, just 12% of Canadians believed the Liberal government deserved re-election—a clear indictment of voter fatigue and desire for change. Trudeau’s subsequent resignation announcement plunged the party into unprecedented depths, with the Liberals trailing Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives by a remarkable 27 points—47% to 20%, the largest margin Abacus Data had ever measured in its extensive polling history.
Yet, the narrative quickly shifted following a seismic political event south of the border. Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency in January 2025 drastically reshaped the Canadian electoral landscape. Trump’s provocative talk of annexing Canada and threats and then the imposition of aggressive tariffs swiftly replaced domestic scarcity concerns with an even more profound feeling: precarity. Unlike scarcity, precarity is rooted in deep-seated fears about the stability and reliability of foundational systems—employment, healthcare, economic independence, national security. The Canadian public was gripped by uncertainty, worried not just about immediate survival but the integrity of long-term societal structures.
In this atmosphere of heightened anxiety, Mark Carney’s entry into the Liberal leadership race was impeccably timed. Carney—a figure synonymous with steady-handed economic stewardship from his tenure as Governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England—represented precisely the leadership style voters craved amidst turmoil. His subsequent victory was not just a leadership win but a complete reset in public perception about federal governance. Indeed, Abacus Data’s extensive tracking illustrates a dramatic recovery in government approval immediately following Carney’s assumption of office, surging from a paltry 27% approval to an impressive 43% in mere weeks. Carney quickly became the reassuring figure voters felt could capably address the imminent threat posed by Trump’s America and Justin Trudeau was now in the rearview window.
Heading into the 2025 election, two distinct ballot questions emerged, deeply dividing the electorate: handling the Trump threat versus delivering political and economic change. Initially, Trump dominated the narrative; voters prioritized security and stability, heavily favouring the Liberals, who enjoyed an overwhelming advantage on handling relations with Trump. Indeed, among the 21% of voters who saw Trump as the most critical issue, a staggering 76% thought the Liberals could best deal with the issue compared to just 13% for Conservatives. The Conservatives, in contrast, lead by 11-points, when those who ranked the cost of living as the top issue were asked which party could best deal with that issue. However, as the campaign progressed, the salience of the Trump issue waned slightly, replaced increasingly by voters’ desire for change. By election day, 55% of Canadians saw “change” as their primary voting determinant, significantly up from earlier polling waves conducted by Abacus Data. This shift dramatically favoured the Conservatives, with 57% of these “change voters” supporting Poilievre’s party versus 30% for the Liberals. Still, Carney’s leadership effectively mitigated the damage from this shift. Critically, he captured a substantial 30% of “change voters,” illustrating his success in distancing himself from Trudeau’s unpopular legacy. Trudeau was undeniably Carney’s kryptonite, just as Trump was Poilievre’s. Without Trudeau’s departure, Abacus Data’s hypothetical polling indicates the Liberals would have suffered a severe loss, polling just 28% compared to the Conservatives’ 46%… Source:abacusdata.ca
Saturday, May 2, 2026
