The Omicron variant’s spread may be slowing slightly, at least in some provinces where a government website monitoring virus projection estimates shows peak infections could be reached within a week.
In Manitoba, where the test positivity rate is now 48 per cent, this province is outpacing the rest of Canada in active COVID-19 cases. But infections could peak soon.
According to a government website that estimates trends in COVID-19 prevalence based on existing epidemiological information, Winnipeg is expected to start seeing cases decline in the next seven to 10 days. The tool is designed for the Canadian Armed Forces to understand their risk level in different areas of Canada and internationally, and isn’t used to advise other aspects of government.
“The tool was made available globally to provide easy access to CAF medical advisors irrespective of their location and as part of the Government of Canada open data initiative,” a spokesperson told CTV News in an email.
“It is important to note that the numbers found in this model are not case numbers, but rather estimates based on existing epidemiological information.” Projections on the website are similar for Toronto, Montreal and Halifax, where cases are also expected to drop in the coming weeks. B.C.’s top doctor says the COVID-19 peak there is a few weeks away.
“We may be entering soon into the place where we will see a decline,” Dr. Bonnie Henry said in an update Tuesday.
PEAK INDICATORS
University of Toronto epidemiologist Colin Furness told CTVNews.ca it is difficult to know when a peak is happening until it has actually passed.
“You can only find the peak in the rear-view mirror. We can make some guesses based on modelling about when we expect peaks to happen. But really, you don’t know until you’re past it,” Furness said in a telephone interview Wednesday. Furness said there are some signals, known as leading indicators, which can show when a peak is nearing. He says these factors include adequate testing, positivity rates, and wastewater analysis.
However, with recent changes to COVID-19 testing criteria across the country, Furness says this indicator, as well as the positivity indicator, are skewed.
“If you say that only symptomatic people can get tested, your positive is going to go up. So you have to look very carefully if you want to interpret positivity as what changes if anything happens to the testing strategy, so that’s dicey,” he said. While wastewater sampling can be a good leading indicator, Furness says the technique is still new and caution has to be taken on how the data is interpreted.“ When people are very sick, are they excreting a large amount of virus so it can look like there’s more or could we confuse two really sick people with 10 only very slightly sick people? There’s a lot we don’t really know about wastewater testing,” he said. Furness noted that modelling data in December showed that the peak of this wave was expected to hit mid-January.
With this in mind, Furness said Canada is likely close to reaching the peak of the Omicron wave. However, he said it is important to remember that models are just estimates…..
Source: ctvnews.ca
Saturday, May 9, 2026
